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Oxford Economics: Inflation in Mozambique Is Expected to Fall to 4.5% This Year, but Exceed 7% By 2025

Oxford Economics: Inflation in Mozambique Is Expected to Fall to 4.5% This Year, but Exceed 7% By 2025

Mozambique recorded year-on-year inflation of 3 per cent in March, compared to the same month in 2023, a new consecutive monthly drop, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE).

Oxford Economics said on Sunday that inflation in Mozambique is expected to fall this year to 4.5 per cent on average, but will rise again to 7 per cent in 2025 due to pressure from gas megaprojects.

a d v e r t i s e m e n t

“The construction of TotalEnergies’ liquefied natural gas project starting in the second half of the year and the reconstruction efforts in the war-torn provinces in the north will require large amounts of money, goods and services, which will put supply chains under pressure,” argue the analysts from Oxford Economics’ African department.

For this reason, they add, “the average inflation rate is expected to slow from 7 per cent in 2023 to 4.5 per cent in 2024, rising again to over 7 per cent next year.”

a d v e r t i s e m e n t

In its commentary on March prices, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, Oxford Economics says that there is more risk of inflation rising than falling “due to the continued escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel, which could cause a sharp rise in oil prices, and El Niño, which could lead to below-average rainfall in the planting season, increasing food prices in the country”.

Mozambique recorded year-on-year inflation of 3 per cent in March, compared to the same month in 2023, a new consecutive monthly drop, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE).

INE’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates that Mozambique “recorded a rise in the general price level of around 3.03 per cent” over 12 months, compared to March 2023, and that the divisions of Education, Restaurants, Hotels, Cafés and Similar, and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages “were the ones with the highest price rises, varying by 10.39 per cent, 5.93 per cent and 4.94 per cent, respectively”.

Year-on-year inflation in February (12 months) was 4%, in January 4.19% and in December 5.3%.

See Also

Mozambique ended 2023 with 12-month year-on-year inflation of 5.30 per cent and a one-year average of 7.1 per cent, according to previous INE data, when the official government forecast was 7 per cent.

The Mozambican government announced on 13 February that the country would see economic growth of 5% in 2023 compared to 4.4% in 2022, highlighting an “economic expansion” that exceeded the regional average of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Lusa

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