In July, Mozambique registered monthly deflation of 0.05%, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which covers data from eight cities in the country. Although this represents a brief drop in prices, it contrasts with the accumulated inflation for the year, which stands at 1.15%, and year-on-year inflation, which reached 2.97% compared to July 2023.
The 0.05% reduction in prices in July was mainly due to lower costs in essential categories such as food and non-alcoholic drinks, which contributed 0.11 percentage points to the overall index.
According to the report published by the National Statistics Institute (INE), consulted by Diário Económico on Tuesday (13), “among the products that most influenced this fall were tomatoes (-7.6%), onions (-7.1%), cabbage (-8.3%), lettuce (-9.5%), butter beans (-1.2%) and horse mackerel (-0.7%)”. In addition, non-food items such as “taps, pipes, valves and the like fell by 7.0 per cent”.
However, some products bucked this downward trend. Grain maize (+15.6%), fresh fish (+2.5%), ham, cheese and egg sandwiches (+1.7%), garlic (+10.8%), grain rice (+0.5%), dead chicken in pieces (+1.3%) and bedding (+1.8%) recorded increases, contributing 0.14 positive percentage points to the index. This situation highlights the volatility of food prices, which has a direct impact on food security in the country.
Despite July’s deflation, accumulated inflation from January to July 2024 reached 1.15%, a figure that reflects the continuous rise in prices. The food and non-alcoholic drinks divisions, along with restaurants, hotels, cafés and the like, were the main drivers of this increase. Products such as “dried fish, complete restaurant meals, butter beans, rice grain, piped water consumption, brown sugar and onions saw notable increases, putting pressure on family budgets”.
Year-on-year inflation, which compares prices in July 2024 with those in July 2023, rose by 2.97 per cent. This increase is particularly significant in the areas of education (10.52 per cent) and food and non-alcoholic drinks (5.64 per cent), underlining the persistent inflationary pressure in sectors that are essential for families.
Regional analysis of the data shows that deflation in July was not uniform across the country. While cities like Tete (-0.23%) and Nampula (-0.21%) saw the biggest price drops, places like Chimoio (+0.18%) and Inhambane Province (+0.12%) saw price rises.
In the year to date, all regions have seen price rises, with Quelimane leading the way with an increase of 2.79 per cent, a fact that reveals the regional inequalities in the impact of inflation, with some areas suffering more than others.
Although July’s deflation may provide a brief respite, the accumulated and year-on-year inflation figures indicate that Mozambique continues to face significant challenges in controlling the cost of living.
The volatility of prices, especially food prices, and regional variations in the impact of inflation suggest the need for additional measures to stabilise the economy and protect Mozambican families from rising inflationary pressure. According to the document, “additional measures will be necessary to stabilise the economy and protect Mozambican families from growing inflationary pressure”.
Felisberto Ruco (DE)
