The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has left its global economic growth forecast for this year largely unchanged, concluding that the strong momentum generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI) has helped offset the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East.
“At this moment, global economic activity and the outlook are being shaped by two major forces acting in opposite directions and producing asymmetric effects across different countries,” the Washington-based institution said in the update to its World Economic Outlook report, published last week.
“The global economy has so far managed to withstand the shock caused by the war better than had been feared,” the IMF added.
The Fund projects global economic growth of 3% in 2026, slightly below the 3.1% forecast in April and beneath the 3.5% average recorded over the previous two years. Even so, the IMF cautioned that risks “remain tilted toward a deterioration of the outlook.”
The report, finalised before the most recent escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, identified as the principal threats a potential intensification of the Middle East conflict, greater fragmentation of international trade, and the possibility that optimistic expectations surrounding Artificial Intelligence could fade.
The United States carried out a fresh wave of strikes following a series of incidents involving merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump stated that the provisional ceasefire with Iran had, in practice, ceased to hold.
On Wednesday, Trump further declared that Washington could conduct additional strikes against Iran, increasing pressure on Tehran and reinforcing the risk of a return to large-scale conflict.
“Recent events show that a high degree of uncertainty continues to prevail,” said Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Research Department, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“Risks remain very elevated,” she said, adding that an escalation of the conflict represents the primary downside risk to the global economy.
Meanwhile, the disinflation process has lost momentum. The IMF now projects global inflation of 4.7% this year, up from the 4.4% estimated previously, driven primarily by higher energy and food prices.
The most significant downward revisions to growth prospects were concentrated in the Middle East region. The forecast for Saudi Arabia in 2026 was cut by 1.4 percentage points, from 3.1% to 1.7%. By contrast, the projection for the United States remained unchanged at 2.3%.
Much of what the IMF described as a “positive surprise” was recorded in Asia, in economies integrated into AI-related value chains. Exporters of AI-linked technology equipment outperformed expectations despite exposure to the energy and trade disruptions caused by the war.
Among these countries is South Korea, whose economy expanded at an annualised rate of 7.5% in the first quarter — more than four times above the 1.8% projected in April — “despite its heavy dependence on energy imports from the Middle East,” the report noted.
“The global economy has so far managed to withstand the shock caused by the war better than had been feared.”
Thailand, Malaysia, and Taiwan also recorded stronger-than-expected performances, benefiting from robust demand for AI-related equipment.
Thailand’s growth forecast for this year was revised upward, from 1.5% to 1.9%, reflecting emergency fiscal measures and a strong performance in technology-linked exports and investment. Malaysia, meanwhile, is expected to benefit from growing investment in data centres.
On a more positive note, the IMF revised its global growth forecast for 2027 upward, from 3.2% to 3.4%.
Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/2026/07/13/mundo-en/fmi-mantem-perspectivas-para-a-economia-mundial-apesar-da-guerra-e-do-impulso-da-ia/
