The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Mozambique to record a deterioration in its external accounts in 2026, reversing the improvement trend anticipated for most Sub-Saharan African countries.
The projection was presented this Wednesday (4) in Maputo by Olamide Harrison, the IMF Resident Representative in Mozambique, during the release of the Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Sub-Saharan Africa and a roundtable discussion on the theme “Impact of the Fuel Price Shock in Mozambique.”
While presenting the region’s external position forecasts, Harrison explained that although an overall improvement in current account balances is expected, Mozambique is likely to follow a different path.
“Balances are expected to improve, but with significant variation across countries,” she said.
According to the IMF, the median current account deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to narrow by 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reaching 3.5% of GDP in 2026, driven mainly by oil-exporting countries and resource-rich economies. However, Mozambique is expected to move in the opposite direction.
“A negative variation is expected in the case of Mozambique, due to a different economic structure, with an increase in imports driven by megaprojects,” Harrison stated.
The IMF also warned about the impact of new external shocks on the region’s economic outlook, in a context marked by the war in the Middle East, volatility in international markets, and a reduction in official development assistance.
“The recent increase in the prices of oil, gas, and fertilizers, along with other disruptions stemming from the shock, is weighing on expectations,” the IMF representative said.
According to the institution, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow to 4.3% in 2026, down 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast. The IMF warns that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could lead to further pressure on energy and food prices, increasing risks for regional economies.
The institution therefore calls for the maintenance of prudent macroeconomic policies, protection of vulnerable groups, and strengthened economic resilience in the face of ongoing global uncertainty.
Source: Diário Económico
