The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Mozambique’s economy to grow by just 0.5% in 2026, in a context marked by high uncertainty and persistent foreign currency shortages, following a contraction recorded in the previous year, according to Lusa.
The projection was presented by António David, Deputy Chief of the Regional Studies Division in the IMF’s African Department, who noted that economic activity in the country will remain weak in the short term. “Last year already saw negative growth, and we project that, due to high uncertainty and foreign currency shortages, economic activity will remain subdued in Mozambique,” he stated.
According to the official, although natural gas projects may boost growth later in the decade, the country is expected to face significant constraints in the meantime, particularly due to the current international context. The war in the Middle East, he highlighted, has triggered oil price shocks, negatively affecting importing economies such as Mozambique.
“As Mozambique is an oil-importing country, it is significantly impacted by the supply shock caused by the crisis in the Middle East, which is expected to negatively affect growth prospects for 2026,” he explained.
Despite the economic slowdown, the IMF acknowledges the Mozambican authorities’ ability to keep inflation under control, below 5%. However, it warns of significant fiscal pressures, worsened by limitations in public revenue mobilization, particularly due to tax exemptions under special regimes.
In this context, the international organization recommends the adoption of measures to ensure the sustainability of public finances. Key priorities include reducing public debt, stabilizing the macroeconomic environment, improving foreign currency availability, and creating more favorable conditions for private sector development.
The IMF also notes that substantial revenues from natural gas exploitation are not expected before the end of the decade, reinforcing the need for caution in fiscal policy management.
At the regional level, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to maintain relatively stable growth, estimated at 4.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, supported by macroeconomic stabilization efforts and structural reforms implemented in recent years. Nevertheless, disparities persist among economies, with some countries facing prolonged challenges.
Globally, the IMF has revised down its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Growth is expected to recover slightly to 3.2% in 2027, although it will remain below recent averages.
Source: Diário Económico
