The Government of Mozambique forecasts an economic growth rate of 3.2 % in 2026, according to the budget proposal for that year, projecting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 1.6 trillion meticais (approximately $23.5 billion).
According to Lusa, this estimate represents a slight acceleration compared to the 2.9 % projected for 2025 and the 2.2 % recorded in 2024, years marked by political instability in the post-election period. In 2023, economic growth had reached 5 %.
For 2025, the government estimates a nominal GDP of 1.5 trillion meticais ($21.8 billion), while in 2024 it was 1.4 trillion meticais ($20.5 billion). In the macroeconomic framework of the 2026 budget, inflation is projected at 3.7 %, below the 7 % projected for 2025 and the 3.2 % recorded in 2024. Net International Reserves are expected to cover 4.4 months of imports in 2026, compared to 4.7 months estimated for 2025 and five months in 2024.
Regarding external trade, the government expects exports to rise from $8.2 billion in 2025 to $8.4 billion in 2026, while imports are projected to increase from $9.2 billion to $9.5 billion, maintaining the trade deficit. “The goal is to consolidate public accounts to stabilize debt indicators, freeing up budgetary space to meet productive investment needs,” stated Amílcar Tivane, Secretary of State for the Treasury and Budget, in September.
He further emphasized that fiscal consolidation should remain aligned with creating conditions to stimulate economic growth, advocating a balance between budgetary discipline and investment. Tivane acknowledged that the international context and external shocks pose challenges to economic forecasts, which is why the government will continue to focus on rationalizing public expenditure. Priority measures include controlling the wage bill and stabilizing debt-related expenses.
The 2026 budget foresees expenditures equivalent to about 32 % of GDP, revenues around 28 % of GDP, and a fiscal deficit near 6 %. Coverage of this deficit will be ensured through donations and domestic and external borrowing, adopting a more restrained approach to mitigate risks. For 2025, the projected deficit was 5.6 % of GDP.
Tivane added that the fiscal plan for 2026 will continue to focus on promoting credibility and transparency in public finances, including accelerating reforms to improve revenue collection.
The projections in the 2026 budget proposal reflect a context of fiscal prudence and budgetary restraint, with the government estimating that about 94 % of the budget will be allocated to state operations and debt service, leaving limited margins for public investment.
Although the government anticipates 3.2 % economic growth next year, international analysts, such as the World Bank, have revised projections for Mozambique downward, estimating only 1.8 % growth for 2025. Nevertheless, the government maintains its goal of reducing the fiscal deficit to around $1.7 billion in 2026, focusing on measures for fiscal consolidation and increased domestic revenue collection.
Source: Diário Económico
