The government forecasts average economic growth of 5.1 per cent by 2027, according to the Fiscal Risks Report 2025. The document, drawn up by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, projects that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could reach around 1.9 billion meticals (31.3 billion dollars) in that period, driven by the stability of the currency, an increase in the production and export of natural gas and other macroeconomic factors.
According to the report, analysed this Tuesday (3) by DE, this growth will be sustained by the export of natural gas from Area 4 in the Rovuma basin (South Coral), which will continue to generate significant revenues. The document also states that the start-up of the Coral North project, led by Eni, scheduled for 2027, should contribute to the expansion of gas production, reinforcing the country’s economic performance.
The document stresses that, despite an average growth scenario estimated at 5.1 per cent for the 2025-27 period, an alternative, more pessimistic scenario projects growth of 4.6 per cent if sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, construction and trade perform below expectations. This less favourable scenario could result in a drop of 15.5 billion meticals (245 million dollars) in public revenue collection and negatively affect the state’s primary balance.
In terms of nominal GDP, with the contribution of the gas sector, it is estimated that it will increase from 1.5 billion meticals (24.2 billion dollars) in 2024 to 1.9 billion meticals (31.2 billion dollars) in 2027. Real growth, including gas production, is expected to rise from 5.5 per cent in 2024 to 5.8 per cent in 2027.
Felisberto Ruco
