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Government: Turbulent Fiscal Environment Calls for a New Approach in Sub-Saharan Africa

Government: Turbulent Fiscal Environment Calls for a New Approach in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mozambique’s Minister of Finance, Carla Loveira, attended a meeting last week in Washington, D.C., of the African Constituency Group of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of which Mozambique is a member.

According to a statement, the meeting aims to assess the IMF and World Bank’s projections regarding the global crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East.

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On that occasion, the minister argued that Sub-Saharan Africa needs to take a stand, as it faces a turbulent fiscal environment shaped by global shocks, geopolitical instability, climate change, and tighter financial conditions, including a reduction in official development assistance.

Loveira stated that these pressures have exacerbated fiscal vulnerabilities, with many countries facing high levels of debt, limited fiscal space, and persistent balance of payments challenges.

With regard to Mozambique specifically, the official noted that the government is working with the banking sector to identify mechanisms that ensure the availability of foreign exchange reserves to pay for fuel imports.

The International Monetary Fund recently revised downward its economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa this year, lowering it by 0.3 percentage points from its January estimate to 4.3%.

“Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain relatively stable, at 4.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027,” according to the Global Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday at the start of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, which are taking place this week in Washington, D.C.

“The region’s major economies continue to benefit from macroeconomic stabilization and past reform efforts,” note IMF economists.

An example of this is Nigeria, the region’s largest economy, where “the pace of growth remains at 4.1% in 2026, supported by greater macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-trade effects, while higher costs of goods and transportation are adverse factors,” they add.

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Angola is expected to grow by 2.3%, above the 2.1% forecast by the Fund in its previous outlook, and is even expected to accelerate to 2.6% next year, but still significantly below the regional average, which stands at 4.4% for 2027.

Equatorial Guinea, for its part, is expected to remain in recession this year and next, with declines in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.7% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, prolonging an economic crisis that has lasted for more than a decade.

Elsewhere in the report on the global economy, the IMF states that, amid uncertainty driven by the war in the Middle East, “the projected reductions in official development assistance (ODA) pose an additional challenge, particularly given their effects on outcomes in health, education, and social protection.”

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