The government expects a reversal of the national economy’s contraction trend in the third quarter of this year, following three consecutive periods of GDP decline caused by instability in the aftermath of the October 2024 general elections.
According to Lusa, this forecast was announced on Tuesday (11) in Maputo by the spokesperson of the Council of Ministers, Salim Valá, who is also Minister of Planning and Development, at the end of the weekly government session. When questioned about the ongoing delays in the payment of overtime in the education sector, Valá linked the budgetary difficulties to the economic slowdown observed in recent quarters.
“If you recall, we had three consecutive quarters of economic contraction. These are difficult times, with GDP slowing down. The situation is gradually improving. Everything indicates that we will have good news in the third quarter, and with greater capacity to stimulate the economy and collect revenues, these problems can be solved more easily,” the minister said.
Valá also urged teachers to maintain their commitment to the educational mission, particularly during this critical phase of the school year. “We ask for understanding. This is a new mission for the development of our country,” he added.
Official data indicate that Mozambique recorded three consecutive quarters of economic contraction: -4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, -3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, and -0.9% in the second quarter, primarily due to social unrest stemming from the electoral process. Finance Minister Carla Loveira had already stated on October 29 that the most recent budget execution indicators pointed to a “solid path” for recovery. According to the minister, third-quarter data show a slight increase in public revenue and a reduction in expenses year-on-year.
Although the first half of 2025 shows an accumulated contraction of 2.4%, official projections maintain a GDP growth forecast of 2.9% by the end of the year, with acceleration expected to 3.2% in 2026 and an average annual growth of 4.4% between 2026 and 2028.
Carla Loveira emphasized that economic recovery will be supported by ongoing reforms in public finance, coupled with the gradual growth of strategic sectors such as energy, agriculture, natural gas, and infrastructure. “These indicators show that there is a promising, sustainable, and inclusive economic growth horizon,” she highlighted.
Government projections come at a time when institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have warned of the risks of a slow recovery due to political instability and fiscal vulnerability.
Even so, the government remains optimistic, relying on the gradual resumption of production and the positive performance of key sectors such as energy, agriculture, and natural gas, which are considered essential for ensuring a sustainable and resilient economic growth trajectory in the coming years.
Source: Diário Económico
