The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report predicts that South Africa will become Africa’s largest economy this year. In the growth league, Mozambique could be the 16th best performer.
A sporting championship is said to be competitive when there is balance between the teams vying for the title and uncertainty about the winner (for example, the Premier League in football). If we apply this same principle to the African economy, we can say that it is also a competitive league.
In 2022, Nigeria was the largest economy, followed by Egypt and South Africa; in 2023, Egypt rose to the top, followed by South Africa and Nigeria, and this year, if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts are to be believed, South Africa will be the continent’s largest economy, followed by Egypt and Algeria (which relegates Nigeria to fourth place).
Next in line are Ethiopia, Morocco, Kenya, Angola, Ivory Coast and Tanzania. Mozambique repeats its 21st place from 2023, with a nominal GDP estimated at 22 billion dollars.
“Mozambique grows 5% this year“
In the ‘growth league’, according to estimates in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, Mozambique will this year be the 16th African country with the highest GDP growth compared to 2023: 5% growth, above the Sub-Saharan African average of 3.8%. Compared to neighbouring countries, only Tanzania is performing better (5.5%), Kenya has the same level of growth (5%), while Zambia (4.7%), Malawi (3.3%), Zimbabwe (3.2%) and, above all, South Africa (0.9%) are expanding less.
For 2025, the IMF forecast maintains a growth rate of 5 per cent for Mozambique (above the regional average of 4 per cent), which is equivalent to the 21st highest performance among the 53 countries assessed
For 2025, the IMF forecast maintains 5% growth for Mozambique (above the regional average of 4%), which is equivalent to the 21st highest performance among 53 African nations. Above Mozambique will be Tanzania (6%) and Kenya (5.3%) and below will be Zambia (4.8%), Malawi (3.8%), Zimbabwe (3.2%) and South Africa (1.2%).
The world economy remains sluggish
The IMF forecasts that the world economy will continue to grow at around 3.2 per cent during 2024 and 2025, the same rate as in 2023. It also projects a slight acceleration for the advanced economies, where growth should increase from 1.6 per cent in 2023 to 1.7 per cent in 2024 and 1.8 per cent in 2025. Meanwhile, a modest slowdown is expected in emerging and developing economies, from 4.3 per cent in 2023 to 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025.
While GDP growth is projected to be timid, inflation forecasts are encouraging: global inflation should fall from 6.8 per cent in 2023 to 5.9 per cent in 2024 and 4.5 per cent in 2025.
Text: Management – Photo: D.R.
