The week was marked by mixed signals in relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with the institution indicating that conditions are not yet in place for a new assistance program, while the government continues efforts to negotiate a new support framework. At the same time, economic growth prospects were revised downward again, amid uncertainty and foreign currency shortages.
IMF Points to Lack of Conditions for New Program
The IMF stated that Mozambique does not currently meet the conditions for a new financing program, stressing the need for urgent measures to correct macroeconomic imbalances.
According to the IMF’s resident representative in Mozambique, Olamide Harrison, analyses are underway to identify solutions to restore economic balance. He noted that the process involves assessing both internal challenges and external pressures affecting the country.
This position follows the government’s early repayment of more than USD 700 million to the IMF, settling obligations from previous programs. Despite this, the institution clarified that such payments are not a prerequisite for negotiating new agreements.
Analysts believe the move may be linked to efforts to strengthen the country’s credibility with international creditors, at a time of financial constraints and the need to access new sources of funding.
Government Moves Forward with Talks for New Agreement
Despite the IMF’s reservations, the Mozambican government remains committed to negotiating a new financial support program. Talks are taking place in Washington during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.
The National Director for Fiscal and Financial Analysis, Alfredo Mutombene, stated that settling the debt does not mark the end of cooperation with the Fund, but rather the beginning of a new phase in the relationship.
The Mozambican delegation, led by Finance Minister Carla Louveira, is participating in technical meetings with representatives of international financial institutions, aiming to identify mechanisms to support economic development.
The President of the Republic, Daniel Chapo, had previously described the early debt repayment as a sign of macroeconomic responsibility, arguing that the measure strengthens the country’s credibility internationally.
Economic Growth Slows and Foreign Currency Pressures Persist
On the macroeconomic front, the IMF forecasts growth of just 0.5% for Mozambique in 2026, following a contraction in the previous year. The projection reflects a context of high uncertainty and foreign currency shortages, factors that continue to limit economic activity.
According to the IMF, although there is potential linked to natural gas projects, their effects are only expected to materialize later, with significant constraints persisting in the short term.
The international environment also contributes to this scenario, particularly the impact of Middle East tensions on oil prices, which negatively affects importing economies such as Mozambique.
Even so, the IMF acknowledges efforts to contain inflation, while warning of ongoing budgetary pressures and challenges in mobilizing public revenue.
Hidden Debt Case Returns to Spotlight with Swiss Court Ruling
The week was also marked by developments in the hidden debt case, after a Swiss court dismissed proceedings against UBS related to operations of the now-defunct Credit Suisse.
The decision is based on the understanding that criminal liability does not automatically transfer in corporate merger processes, thus exempting UBS from responsibility for actions attributed to Credit Suisse.
The case involves financing worth several billion dollars for projects linked to the creation of a fishing fleet in Mozambique, without parliamentary approval, which triggered a deep economic crisis in the country.
Text: Felisberto Ruco
