According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report, South Africa will become Africa’s largest economy this year, followed by Egypt (the leader in 2023), Algeria and Nigeria (the first in 2022). In the growth league, Mozambique will have the 18th best performance among the continent’s 53 countries, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion rate of 5 per cent, above the Sub-Saharan African average of 3.8 per cent.
A sporting championship is said to be very competitive when there is a balance between the main contenders for the title and uncertainty about the final winner (this is the case, for example, with the Premier League in football). If we apply this same principle to the African economy, we can say that it is a very competitive league. This is because in 2022 Nigeria was the largest economy, followed by Egypt and South Africa; in 2023 Egypt took the lead, followed by South Africa and Nigeria, and this year, if IMF forecasts are to be believed, South Africa will be the continent’s largest economy, followed by Egypt and Algeria (which relegates Nigeria to fourth place). In the following places are Ethiopia, Morocco, Kenya, Angola, Ivory Coast and Tanzania. Mozambique repeats its 21st place from 2023, with a nominal GDP estimated at 22 billion dollars.
Mozambique will be the 16th most dynamic economy on the continent.
In the ‘growth league’, according to estimates in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, Mozambique will be the 18th African country with the greatest GDP variation compared to 2023, with 5% growth, above the Sub-Saharan African average of 3.8%. Compared to neighbouring countries, only Tanzania is performing better (5.5%), Kenya has the same level of growth (5%), while Zambia (4.7%), Malawi (3.3%), Zimbabwe (3.2%) and, above all, South Africa (0.9%) are expanding less.
For 2025, the IMF forecast maintains a growth rate of 5% for Mozambique (above the regional average of 4%), which is equivalent to the 21st highest performance among 53 African nations. Above Mozambique will be Tanzania (6%) and Kenya (5.3%) and below will be Zambia (4.8%), Malawi (3.8%), Zimbabwe (3.2%) and South Africa (1.2%).
Jaime Fidalgo
