The military escalation in the Middle East is putting pressure on global energy markets and could directly impact the pockets of Mozambican households. Analysts consulted by Diário Económico say that, as a net fuel importer, the country is “unfortunately exposed” to this new cycle of instability, especially as the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most strategic maritime routes—has been identified as the epicenter of the energy shock.
Orlando Mazuze, an expert in International Relations, believes the conflict “has significant potential” to worsen the global scenario, stressing that it is “already causing or triggering a systemic energy crisis.” He points out that the risk stems from the fact that the theater of the war coincides with the region where “the world’s largest oil producers are located.”
“The conflict zone, which is the Middle East and the Gulf region, includes countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates,” he said, arguing that the instability tends to reduce production and exports. “This conflict causes instability in the region, drastically reducing oil production, and reducing production also reduces exports. This ultimately affects the global supply of oil.”
The market logic is immediate: “When supply is low, demand rises, and prices automatically go up.” Since oil is “an essential commodity for all economies,” Mazuze notes that the effects quickly ripple beyond oil and gas.
Hormuz and Risks to Maritime Routes
Mazuze highlights the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global energy trade passes. “In the Gulf region, we find a highly strategic strait—the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 20% of global oil production,” he said.
For the expert, the impact of the war is not measured solely by production levels but also by maritime insecurity. “The sea is a crucial and indispensable platform for international trade; about 80% of global trade occurs via sea. Therefore, the ocean is the world’s largest commercial highway. Any disruption affects costs and delivery times.”
Similarly, Wilker Dias, a national and international political analyst and lecturer at Universidade Alberto Chipande, believes instability along shipping routes “can compromise the country’s economy” because companies must seek longer, more expensive alternatives. “Companies have to use alternative routes, longer pathways, higher costs, and slower deliveries,” he explained.
Fuel, Food, and Inflation: The “Domino Effect”
Mazuze warns that rising oil prices quickly translate into higher living costs. “If oil rises, fuel automatically becomes more expensive. Higher fuel prices increase transportation and food costs, which in turn drive inflation. It’s a domino effect,” he stated.
He emphasizes that rising transport costs—whether maritime, air, or land—tend to affect final product prices: “Products are transported using fuel, and the higher the fuel cost, the higher the final price.”
Wilker Dias agrees that the cost of living could increase, especially in the context of potential shortages. “In the event of a fuel shortage, costs will rise,” he said, noting that the pressure also affects public transport: “Citizens without private cars will feel the impact of rising transport costs.” Regarding food, he warned: “Food prices could be affected, and industrial sectors dependent on fuel may also suffer.”
Currency Pressure and Cautious Investors
Dias also points to the impact on the exchange rate. Rising international prices may increase demand for foreign currency to finance imports, putting pressure on the metical. “If prices rise, more metical will be needed to buy dollars, which can cause currency pressure and even depreciation,” he explained.
He added that inflation may accelerate in a scenario of energy shock: “This can also generate inflation, which leads to higher costs for households.”
Regarding investment, Dias predicts greater prudence from investors. “This conflict may affect international investment, as investors could become more cautious,” he said, specifying the risks: “Large economic projects rely heavily on imports, and if imports are delayed, investment timelines will extend.” He also highlighted cost increases: “Equipment costs rise due to import delays—if fuel is scarce, prices go up.”
Mazuze frames the situation as typical of a system of interdependence between states: “Economic relations between states and the international system are interdependent. When one conflict erupts, other states feel significant impacts.” For Mozambique, he concludes, the risk is structural: “Mozambique is unfortunately exposed because it depends on imported oil and natural gas for its economy.”
“Reserves Are Not Energy Security”
Asked about opportunities for countries with energy resources, Mazuze notes that resources do not automatically equate to energy sovereignty or security. “There is a gap between resource abundance and actual production capacity,” he said, pointing out that Mozambique, despite its substantial gas reserves, remains vulnerable. He recommends building domestic capacity and prioritizing the local market: “Consider supplying the domestic market before exporting, and export only the surplus.”
Dias avoids predicting immediate price hikes in the domestic market but links risk to timing and navigational conditions. “It depends on existing reserves and the resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. If this is not resolved in less than a month, it could cause major complications in our fuel system and other sectors.”
Conflict Context and Market Impacts
In recent days, the Middle East conflict escalated, directly affecting energy navigation and trade. According to international reports, the current confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began on February 28, 2026, intensifying with maritime incidents and attacks, including mines and vessel assaults in the Strait of Hormuz.
This instability caused sharp oil price volatility, reaching levels not seen since 2022, amid fears of prolonged supply and transport disruptions.
The crisis prompted a coordinated emergency response, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) announcing a historic release of strategic reserves to stabilize the market.
Beyond oil, there are disruptions in supply chains and other commodity markets, as companies reroute logistics due to Gulf corridor restrictions.
In this environment of energy disruption and rising logistical costs, Mozambican analysts warn that the country is among the most exposed, with potential pressures on fuel prices, living costs, exchange rates, and investment.
The government has assured that domestic fuel prices will remain stable at least until the end of April, with current reserves sufficient to maintain normal economic activity until early May. According to Amílcar Tivane, Secretary of State for Treasury and Budget, the country has around 75,000 tons of fuel in the market and approximately 85,000 tons stored in ocean terminals, volumes sufficient to secure short-term domestic supply.
Text by Cleusia Chirindza & Felisberto Ruco
