Analyst Alberto da Cruz told Lusa news agency on Friday that until the results of the October 9 elections in Mozambique are confirmed by the Constitutional Council, “an atmosphere of uncertainty and tension is expected, with demonstrations in the streets.”
“Even if the authorities can control the protests in the streets, the voices of protest are likely to persist, since in truth Mozambicans are demanding the cost of living and not the victory or defeat of one party or another,” added Alberto da Cruz, contacted by telephone by Lusa from Lisbon.
The analyst said that elections in Mozambique have been characterised by post-electoral conflicts, and the vote on October 9 was no exception.
“Venâncio Mondlane, the second most popular (presidential) candidate, claims that the results do not reflect the true will of the people, leading to protests and social polarisation. Although the opposition has contested [the results], according to the announcement on Thursday by the National Electoral Commission (CNE), only 15% of the results, which makes it unlikely that this will significantly change the electoral outcome,” he ventured.
On Thursday, the CNE announced the victory of Daniel Chapo, supported by the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) in the election for President of the Republic on October 9, with 70.67% of the votes – a result that still needs to be validated by the Constitutional Council.
Venâncio Mondlane, supported by the Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos, an extra-parliamentary party), came in second place, with 20.32% (1,412,517 votes).
In third place was Ossufo Momade, president of Renamo, previously the largest opposition party, with 403,591 votes (5.81%), followed by Lutero Simango, president of MDM, with 223,066 votes (3.21%).
Alberto da Cruz also highlighted that the vote achieved by Frelimo and its candidate coincides with a “growing challenge to the governance of the last decade”.
The analyst cited the “perceptions of declining living conditions, as indicated by the ‘Afrobarometer’, where more than 70% of Mozambicans believe that their lives have worsened in recent years”.
“This paves the way for an in-depth investigation into how Frelimo manages to engage its electorate”, he stressed.
Frelimo’s traditional opposition political party, Renamo, came in third place in these elections, and its leader and presidential candidate had his worst electoral results ever.
“Renamo’s electoral performance, which achieved the worst results ever, reveals much more than a simple drop in popularity. Since its surprising start in the 1994 elections, this party had built a solid base, contrary to initial expectations. However, its decline since its peak in 1999, when it reached 117 seats, has now culminated in a clear collapse, with only 21 deputies elected, relegated to third place in the Mozambican political chessboard,” da Cruz highlighted.
Alberto da Cruz contextualised Renamo’s “electoral defeat”.
“We cannot ignore the impact of the emergence of Podemos, a party born from the ranks of Frelimo dissidents, whose name gained traction in support of the supposed candidacy of Samora Machel Jr. Although little is known about Podemos’ ideology or the capabilities of its members, including those who will go to parliament, the truth is that its rise has added a new layer of uncertainty to the Mozambican political scene,” he argued.
“It is too early to predict the role that this party may play in the next five years, […] but its emergence points to a reconfiguration of the dynamics of the opposition, with the latter taking second place,” he added.
As such, Alberto da Cruz believes that Mozambique “faces greater political fragmentation” because “the opposition will be diluted, without a clear expression of force that can effectively oppose Frelimo”.
The ruling party in Mozambique, in turn, consolidated its dominance, winning 195 of the 250 available seats, against 55 for the opposition, “which puts the latter in a difficult position. It will be forced, curiously, to negotiate in order to have any significant impact,” he said.
For Alberto da Cruz, Renamo “has lost the ability to reinvent itself”.
“Frelimo continues to dominate the political scene, and the opposition, fragmented, is at a critical moment. Podemos’ entry could eventually mark a new phase in Mozambican politics, but it is still too early to determine whether it will be a force for change or just another or just another player of little relevance in an increasingly depoliticized panorama, a context in which Frelimo emerges stronger”, he concluded.
Lusa
