The number of people living below the poverty line has risen significantly in the last 10 years, to more than half the population. From 46.1 per cent in 2015, the country now has more than 65 per cent of the population unable to acquire food and non-food items that meet basic individual or family needs.
The figures come from the National Development Strategy 2025-2044, approved a few days ago by the Council of Ministers, which summarises the main guidelines for the country’s development over the next 20 years.
The document, whose vision is to transform Mozambique into a prosperous middle-income country where security, equity and well-being are guaranteed, recognises that, despite various efforts, Mozambique remains one of the poorest countries in the world.
In fact, the trend in recent years has been upwards, and the blame is shared between economic and climatic shocks. “Poverty has affected a significant portion of the population, with distinct demographic and socio-economic characteristics, due to the various adverse events that have negatively influenced the country, with emphasis on climatic events such as cyclones Kenneth and Idai that have significantly affected the lives of the population, causing significant economic and social damage, combined with rising food prices, climatic shocks that affect the agricultural production of families and the transport sector, and the situation of terrorism in the north of the country,” reads the document.
Estimates indicate an increase in consumer poverty, from 46.1 per cent in 2014/15 to 68.2 per cent in 2019/20 and a slight reduction to 65.0 per cent from 2019/20 to 2022.
Given the situation, the government wants to reduce the proportion of the population living below the national poverty line from 68.2 per cent to 27.7 per cent in 20 years.
Multidimensional poverty, which, in addition to consumption, includes access to education, healthcare, ownership of assets, decent housing, adequate sanitation, among others, saw a more stable variation in the rate, from 55 per cent in 2014/15 to 53.1 per cent in 2022, suggesting improvements in access to education and drinking water. However, “the challenge of adequate housing conditions with access to safe water and sanitation, electricity and the ownership of durable goods prevails, with greater emphasis on rural areas where 66.6 per cent of the country’s total population lives”.
The government’s goal is to reduce the multidimensional poverty rate from 53 per cent to 24.2 per cent by 2044.
In the social component, one of the challenges is to combat inequalities. Like other variables, inequalities have also increased at national level (urban/rural and regional) from 0.47 in 2014/15 to 0.51 in 2019/20, being more pronounced in rural areas and in the northern region of the country, according to the government.
“Likewise, social inequalities have been increasing due to the emergence of pockets of food insecurity and hunger derived from rising food prices, climate shocks that affect families’ agricultural production and the terrorism situation in the north of the country,” it states.
In addition to the factors that have contributed to the increase in the number of poor people in the country, the instrument highlights the rapid growth of the population, which puts pressure on basic services, poor employment opportunities, inequality of income and access to resources, and poor investment in essential infrastructure.
To overcome these obstacles, the government has designed a development model based on strategic sectors such as agriculture, tourism, industry and energy. In fact, in the government’s view, the transformation of the country’s economy has manufacturing as its epicentre.
“The Development Model proposed to guide Mozambique’s economic, social and sustainable trajectory towards a prosperous and inclusive future encompasses a holistic and strategic approach, aimed at the structural transformation of the economy, the diversification of productive sectors and the strengthening of the national industrial base,” he writes.
In the first sector, agriculture, the government is talking about injecting significant investment to modernise production techniques, increase productivity and integrate small producers into wider value chains in the Pemba – Lichinga corridor with technological support from the North West Research Centre in Lichinga and a focus on cotton, potatoes, beans, chickens, maize, soya, tobacco, wheat, fisheries and forestry products; in the Nacala corridor with technological support from the North-East Research Centre in Nampula and a focus on cotton, peanuts, chickens, fruit, cassava, maize and fishery products; in the Zambezi Valley corridor with technological support from the Ulóngue experimental unit and a focus on cotton, rice, potatoes, cattle, goats, chickens and maize; in the Beira corridor with technological support from the Sussundenga Research Centre and a focus on rice, cattle, chickens, fruit, vegetables, maize, soya and wheat; in the Limpopo corridor with technological support from the Southern Research Centre in Chókwè and a focus on rice, cattle, poultry and vegetables, fisheries and forestry products; and in the Maputo corridor with technological support from the Umbelúzi Experimental Unit and a focus on rice, cattle, poultry and vegetables.
Thus, as well as satisfying domestic food demands, the agricultural sector could be an important source of raw materials for the processing industry.
In the industrial sector, a fundamental pillar of the Development Model, the Executive’s efforts will be made to promote investment and the development of industry in the country, in areas that have great potential for revitalising industrial parks, in particular: Cuamba industrial park, agro-industry; Chimoio agro-industrial park; Vilanculos industrial park, seafood industry); Afungi petrochemical industrial park, fertilisers; Morrumbala industrial park, cement; Moma and Chibuto industrial park, paints; Vandúzi and Munhava industrial park, dry port; Balama industrial park, pencils, batteries and solar panels); Chiúta iron industrial park and Beluluane industrial park, aluminium.
In this way, industry will be able to absorb raw materials from the agricultural and mining sectors, which will stimulate the strengthening and expansion of the food/beverage/furniture/paper/glass and pharmaceutical industries; industrial fishing; and the cement industry, among others.
“Investments in infrastructure, labour training, tax incentives, facilitating access to finance for manufacturing companies, especially for the acquisition of modern technology and equipment, promoting foreign trade policies that encourage import substitution and the export of manufactured products, will be implemented to stimulate local production, reduce dependence on imports and promote the diversification of the economy,” he adds.
With these conditions in place, the average annual real GDP growth rate could increase from 4.4 to 9.2 per cent, including the gains from liquefied natural gas.
In fact, according to the Executive’s vision, in the short and medium term, the oil and gas sector will sustain economic growth until 2030. However, in the long term, the dynamics of the non-oil sectors are expected to determine the pace of growth and income generation in the country.
“In terms of production structure, in the long term the primary and tertiary sectors are expected to continue to make the greatest contribution to GDP. Strategic sectors with growth potential and added value such as high value-added agriculture, agro-industry, tourism, sustainable processing of natural resources and the production of manufactured goods could determine economic growth trends over the next 20 years. Raising average annual economic growth rates to 10.7 per cent with LNG and 11.6 per cent without LNG, as shown in table seven below.”
Source: O País
