Mozambique could once again face severe economic pressure from extreme weather events as experts warn of the possible emergence of a “super” El Niño, potentially one of the strongest ever recorded. The African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that the phenomenon could cause economic losses of up to $20 billion across the most affected African countries.
The warning is particularly significant for Mozambique, one of Africa’s most climate-vulnerable countries, which is still coping with the economic and social consequences of successive cyclones, floods, and droughts. The country remains highly exposed to the impacts of extreme weather events.
Anthony Nyong, Director of Climate Change and Green Growth at the AfDB, warned that the countries hardest hit by the next El Niño could lose, on average, between 1% and 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Across the continent, the overall economic impact could range between $10 billion and $20 billion.
To illustrate the scale of the threat, Nyong recalled Mozambique’s experience with Cyclone Idai in 2019, emphasizing that a single natural disaster can generate economic consequences that last for many years.
Idai Demonstrated the Scale of Mozambique’s Climate Risk
Cyclone Idai, followed just weeks later by Cyclone Kenneth, caused an estimated $3 billion in damage and economic losses in Mozambique, affecting infrastructure, agriculture, businesses, and the livelihoods of millions of people. The disaster was severe enough to contribute to a slowdown in the country’s economic growth. According to the World Bank, GDP growth declined from 3.3% in 2018 to approximately 2.3% in 2019, largely due to cyclone-related losses, particularly in the agricultural sector.
Seven years later, Mozambique’s economic exposure remains high. The latest World Bank forecasts project GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2026 and warn that further climate shocks remain among the greatest risks to the country’s recovery.
The institution also forecasts inflation to reach 7.5% this year, partly driven by food supply disruptions caused by flooding. Furthermore, more than 70% of Mozambique’s workforce depends on agriculture, one of the sectors most vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns, droughts, and floods.
El Niño Could Slow Africa’s Economic Growth
The warning follows meteorological forecasts indicating that warming waters in the Pacific Ocean could trigger an exceptionally strong El Niño, bringing severe droughts, intense rainfall, and powerful storms across different regions of Africa.
Before this emerging climate threat, the AfDB had projected Africa’s economy to grow by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027. The Bank now acknowledges that the impact of El Niño could force a downward revision of those forecasts, particularly for the continent’s most vulnerable economies.
Beyond reducing agricultural production, extreme weather events could place additional pressure on public finances. Countries with limited fiscal space are often forced to redirect resources originally allocated to healthcare, education, and infrastructure toward emergency response and reconstruction efforts.
This situation is particularly challenging for Mozambique, where public finances are already under considerable strain. According to the World Bank, wages and interest payments absorbed around 88% of tax revenues in 2025, significantly limiting the government’s ability to increase investment in infrastructure and social services.
Africa May Require $100 Billion for Climate Adaptation
In light of the worsening climate outlook, the AfDB estimates that Africa’s climate adaptation financing needs could reach $100 billion over the next 12 months.
The Bank is preparing a comprehensive assessment in September to evaluate the potential impact of El Niño on its projects across the continent and may restructure investments to help countries respond more effectively to the effects of the phenomenon.
The AfDB also intends to support African governments in accessing international climate finance mechanisms, including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund, and other facilities designed to finance climate resilience, loss, and damage.
For Mozambique, the latest warning comes at a particularly sensitive time. The country is seeking to revive economic growth, strengthen its public finances, and capitalize on the resumption of major liquefied natural gas (LNG) investments, while remaining highly vulnerable to cyclones, floods, and droughts that could quickly erase much of its economic progress.
The World Bank therefore maintains that strengthening climate resilience remains one of the fundamental conditions for Mozambique to achieve more sustainable economic growth and reduce the vulnerability of its population and infrastructure to future climate disasters.
Source: Reuters
