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“Energy Transition Should Not (Yet) Be a National Priority”

“Energy Transition Should Not (Yet) Be a National Priority”

Developed countries drove industrialisation using fossil energy sources. Today, global warming is forcing changes in the rules of the game, with the adoption of renewables, which are expensive. A study by Mozambican specialist Paulo Marcos Sebastião, yet to be released, shows the steps to solve this “equation”.

In 2019, it was estimated that Africa was responsible for just 3.7 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions, being the continent that contributed the least to global warming. Despite this, it was and is the one suffering the most from the effects of climate change, while also facing great needs and difficulties in accessing funding to deal with the phenomenon.

a d v e r t i s e m e n t

A scientific research entitled “Contribution of the Extractive Industry in Developing Countries”, carried out by Paulo Marcos Sebastião, academic, researcher and doctoral student in Energy and Environment, brings to reflection a different approach to that which is disseminated within the great global imperative of energy transition, which advocates the replacement of fossil sources (polluting) by renewable and considered sustainable. To argue, the research brings examples of countries that used fossil sources as an energy base and, through these, managed to create industries that served for economic and social development.

The author guarantees that this study, which will be published later this year, will provide more concise content for political decision-makers and businesspeople to take as an opportunity to mobilise investment to generate foreign exchange and reduce the unemployment rate, ensure a greater rate of energy consumption coverage at community level and boost manufacturing industry. In anticipation of the study’s publication, E&M tries to explore its rationale.

Energy transition still in the initial phase

According to the researcher, Mozambique is already in the first half of the secondary phase of energy transition. During the 47 years of independence there have been significant advances in abandoning the use of primary energy resources (firewood, charcoal, etc.), which were the only alternatives available until 1993 for more than 73% of the Mozambican population.

“First world countries have gone through the phase that ours is in, of boosting development with non-clean energy sources… they have managed to create many industries…”

The rest of the population benefited from the energy generated by Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB) which, in turn, due to political instability, recorded supply drops due to cuts in transmission lines by fires and by the obstruction of integration and distribution equipment. Today, this dependency rate has fallen to 61%.

The records show a significant evolution in terms of comparative quality, coverage and coverage, because it is no longer a priority to supply electricity only to institutions and established industrialists, and it has become a social policy requirement to supply electricity to all national citizens.

The source also reveals that the current stage of energy use based on renewable sources does not match the existing potential in Mozambique. That is, of the global that the country offers, the exploitation is below 5%.

In the case of the hydroelectric potential, the basins of the most important rivers in the country (Maputo, Umbeluzi, Incomati, Limpopo, Save, Buzi, Púnguè, Zambeze, Licungo, Lúrio, Messalo and Rovuma) have a proven capacity to produce about 10,470 MW, but only 2169 MW are exploited corresponding to less than 20% of the capacity. There is no use of wind energy, which could be used even in the offshore system. And as far as solar energy is concerned, Mozambique cannot make up 1% of the existing potential. “For example, Tete, the hottest province in the country, has an insolation with a total of 3155.29 hours of sun per year, an average of 103.73 hours of sun per month, but there is still no project for its exploitation,” noted Paulo Marcos Sebastião. So why, with so much potential, can the energy transition not be a priority for the country? What arguments does the author put forward to reach this conclusion?

We need more technology and human capital

“At a time when there is the great global imperative of carbon neutrality by 2050, Mozambique is making efforts to fit into the same goal. However, that should not be a priority for a country like this because energy transition is gradual and not by externalised imposition.

Outsourcing should be of technological cooperation and training of Mozambicans in specific areas on how to exploit existing resources, aligning with global policies and adopting techniques to predict and minimize undesirable impacts,” justified the expert. Therefore, Paulo Marcos questions the fact that industrial development in developed countries, mainly in Europe, has not been fuelled by clean energy. And defends that Mozambique and poor countries should follow the same path.

“First world countries have gone through the phase that ours is in, of boosting development with non-clean energy sources. That was how they managed to create many industries, which consequently led to a reduction in the unemployment rate and to development”, he explained.

He also believes that even with the COP (Conferences of the Parties) that have been held, they have not been able to discourage, in a precise way, the abandonment of polluting sources. In the case of COP’26, which took place recently in Glasgow, Scotland, it was predicted, for instance, that a reduction of up to 2.7°C of the global temperature would be possible, with the improvement of measures by the most polluting countries such as China, the US and others, but it proved that this goal is far from being achieved, since none of the signatory countries are willing to follow the recommendations.

“They continue to resort, in a large percentage, to energy sources considered as more polluting, justified by the abundance and availability of these resources,” he clarified. Taking the example of Portugal, he said that this country used coal and then fuel oil to produce electricity. The coal mines of Pejão and São Pedro da Cova, located in the regions along the Douro River and in Valongo, had operated for about 108 years to supply various industries. During this period, they were able to attract further investment in various areas such as industry, commerce and tourism, and served as a support for scientific research into other alternative energy sources. They acted as a driving factor in the demographic growth of less inhabited areas in ancient times and significantly reduced the poverty rates of the Portuguese.

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“Only with the exploitation of coal in Moatize, of gas in Temane and now in Palma, has the country managed to make part of its population wage earners, improving purchasing power…”

As a result, today only 6% of the more than ten million Portuguese are listed as unemployed, but with full rights to monthly unemployment benefits, including their dependents and all other citizens with acquired nationality. It is therefore a stable country.

Resistance to transition or lack of resources?

The study on the “Contribution of Extractive Industry in Developing Countries” also found that countries with geolocation and climatological and geomorphological conditions similar to Mozambique are in an energy transition of resistance to impositions to purchase less accessible and costly technologies for the exploitation of energy from renewable sources in detriment of those that have greater accessibility in terms of technological costs. However, in order to face global demands, these countries are carrying out a simultaneous integration of non-renewables with renewables, but with the fundamental objective of making citizens’ lives more comfortable with regard to access to basic services such as education, health, mobility (transport), housing, etc.

Having said this, is there any possibility, in the name of accelerating industrial development based on fossil energies, of going against the principles of this global imperative that is carbon neutrality by 2050?

Paulo Marcos Sebastião believes that “the possibility of going against the global imperative may be, at the same time, a utopia, but integrally possible. Utopia, if the financing policy prevails with the imposition of how and what should be done and where the resources made available by the investor or by the country supporting the transition should be applied. Because, for now, the priority in Mozambique is to capitalise on the resources that are available and explore them with more accessible technologies, to employ and promote the employability of the population”.

The author also believes that it is possible to reach carbon neutrality “if we migrate with a careful look at the need for each type of energy source, minimising the undesirable impacts. Only with the exploration of coal in Moatize, of gas in Temane and now in Palma, the country managed to make part of its population wage earners, thus improving life and purchasing power, in addition to the increase in the collection of State Tax Revenue (by 17.9% in 2017) and GDP (by 4.1% in 2017),” he argued.

E&M

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