Militant threat likely to remain elevated in Mozambique’s northern provinces through late September amid counterinsurgency operation.
The militant threat in Mozambique’s northern provinces will remain elevated at least through the end of September. Security forces are still engaged in combatting Ahlu Sunnah Waljama’a (ASWJ), whose high levels of mobility appear hard to eradicate.
After moving southward into Nampula Province, recent militant activity has been concentrated near Muidumbe and Chitunda, with a continued presence in the Mocimboa da Praia and Nangade districts. They continue to employ IEDs along main roads, including along the Mungwe-Chitunda axis.
Mozambican security forces – strengthened by the Rwanda Defence Force’s (RDF) new deployments – began a large-scale offensive in early August. Their aerial support has proven effective, pushing insurgents away from the critical port of Pemba.
The intense fighting has led to the renewed internal displacement of local populations, especially in the area surrounding Mucojo, and raised fears of civilian casualties. Militant activity has also prevented authorities from providing food, as well as administrative, social, and health services.
Violent attacks on major infrastructure and urban areas could increase on short notice, especially amid the ongoing political campaign for the Oct. 9 general election.
Authorities will undoubtedly maintain an increased security posture in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and Nampula and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads.
Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers. The military presence will continue for the duration of the threat.
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