The intensity of the 2023–2024 El Niño phenomenon is beginning to fade in Southern Africa, offering partial relief to the food crisis that has gripped the region in recent months. Countries such as Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Lesotho—where millions faced severe food shortages—have recently been removed from the United Nations’ list of “Hunger Hotspots,” according to a report released Monday, June 16, by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
According to the semi-annual report on acute food insecurity hotspots, ten countries—including Mozambique—were removed from the priority list following significant improvements in harvests, driven by better weather conditions and fewer extreme climate events.
Mozambique: Partial Relief, but Challenges Persist
The report explains that “although the country has been removed from the highest concern category, Mozambique continues to face critical levels of food insecurity, particularly in the northern provinces, where ongoing armed conflict in Cabo Delgado continues to undermine livelihoods, agricultural production, and humanitarian access.”
Between October 2024 and March 2025, an estimated 4.9 million people in the country experienced Crisis or worse levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3), including 912,000 people in Emergency conditions (IPC Phase 4). This figure represents 24% of the population analyzed nationwide. In addition to the conflict, the document notes, “Mozambique was severely affected during the last rainy season by three cyclones—Chido, Dikeledi, and Jude—as well as a prolonged drought in the northern provinces, some of which had already been hit by El Niño-induced drought.”
The report also reveals that harvests were severely compromised, contributing to food inflation of over 12% in March 2025. These conditions are expected to continue putting pressure on regional cereal markets, already weakened by the climatic impacts of 2024.
Regional Situation
In other Southern African countries, the WFP and FAO report highlights that Zambia is expected to achieve a record maize harvest of over 3.6 million tonnes—more than double the previous year’s output, which had been severely reduced. South Africa also recorded a more than 14% increase in maize production, “resulting in a 13% drop in white maize futures prices, from over 18,000 meticais (US$295.87) per tonne in January to about 15,800 meticais (US$258.85).”
Even so, the report warns that these gains “are fragile and could be reversed if new climate, economic, or conflict-related shocks occur.” The current phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered neutral, but there is a 50% chance of La Niña returning by November, which could once again affect rainfall patterns in the region. Events like El Niño and La Niña are expected to intensify due to accelerated climate change, widely attributed by the scientific community to the use of fossil fuels.
Risks Remain High Elsewhere
The report also highlights the severity of the situation in countries such as Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali, which are identified as hotspots of maximum concern, where communities are already facing hunger, imminent risk of famine, or catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity due to armed conflict, economic shocks, and natural disasters.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo has returned to the list due to the intensification of internal conflicts. The report stresses that worsening situations in several contexts are being exacerbated by access restrictions and significant cuts in humanitarian aid funding.
The UN Hunger Hotspots classification includes three categories:
- Maximum concern: where there is a real risk of famine, with some communities already in catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5);
- Very high concern: where more than 500,000 people or over 10% of the analyzed population are facing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), with a worsening trend;
- High concern: countries or territories where a significant deterioration in food security is expected in the short term.
Despite encouraging signs, the UN agencies emphasize the need to maintain and intensify support for the most vulnerable communities in Southern Africa—including Mozambique—to consolidate recent gains and prevent new setbacks.
Text by: Nário Sixpene
