The African Center for Strategic Studies highlights the 2026 elections as a test of African states’ ability to respond to citizens’ aspirations, in a context of economic pressures, armed conflicts, and geopolitical disputes.
Politics has an impact on the business environment and the economy—obviously in the public sector, but also in the private sector. The African Center for Strategic Studies considers that the elections in 11 African countries scheduled for this year will test the continent’s democratic resilience, amid armed conflicts, shrinking civic space, and media control.
In an article titled “2026 Elections in Africa: Navigating Complexity to Meet Citizens’ Needs”, the organization identifies this year as a decisive electoral period in Africa, with polls in Benin, Cape Verde, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Gambia, Republic of the Congo, Somalia, São Tomé and Príncipe, South Sudan, Uganda, and Zambia.
Lusophone Countries: Stability in Cape Verde and São Tomé
Cape Verde emerges as one of the continent’s most consolidated democracies, while São Tomé is highlighted as a country with “credible electoral processes,” making both Lusophone countries stand out positively in this analysis. With legislative (May) and presidential (November) elections scheduled this year, Cape Verde has experienced a “peaceful alternation of power and strong institutions” that maintain the archipelago’s reputation, despite economic challenges and climate vulnerabilities, the authors note.
São Tomé and Príncipe, with frequent governmental crises and party fragmentation, has presidential, legislative, and local elections scheduled for September. The authors believe these will take place “in a competitive environment” but with stability, despite the “shock” in November 2022, when four people were killed in an attack on a military barracks, in what appeared to be a coup attempt. With no evidence linking the attack to any political party, the key issue for the 2026 elections will be demonstrating that this violence was isolated and not a feature of national politics, they emphasize.
Distrust in Uganda and the DRC
In Uganda, 80-year-old Yoweri Museveni won a seventh term as President in January with 71.65% of the vote, defeating 43-year-old Bobi Wine in elections contested by the opposition and observers.
In Zambia, neighboring Mozambique, the August elections will serve to “assess whether the country has consolidated its return to more open governance.”
International observers consider that intimidation and abduction of opposition figures “undermined confidence” in Uganda’s elections and call into question the seriousness of the process, pointing to a weakening of civic space, corruption, and lack of political alternation.
A similar analysis applies to the Republic of the Congo, where presidential elections are scheduled for this month. Denis Sassou-Nguesso has governed the country since 1979, with a break between 1992 and 1997, and constitutional changes have allowed him to extend his rule, the report explains. Tight control of the media and marginalization of the opposition make the electoral process uncompetitive, it notes.
Djibouti, with presidential elections scheduled for April, has been ruled by Ismail Omar Guelleh since 1999. The opposition is weak, and society faces severe restrictions on freedoms, making political alternation unlikely. Benin, once a democratic reference, with presidential and legislative elections scheduled for April, has experienced a decline since 2016, with contested electoral reforms and repression of the opposition.
Tensions in Ethiopia, Uncertainty in Somalia
In the Horn of Africa, mid-year votes are scheduled: in Ethiopia, parliamentary elections in June will take place amid persistent conflicts and ethnic tensions, even after the formal end of the Tigray war. Similarly, Somalia is preparing presidential elections for the same month, maintaining an indirect clan-based electoral system. Experts point to insecurity and the ongoing threat from the rebel group Al-Shabab as risks that undermine the credibility of the process.
In Zambia, neighboring Mozambique, the August elections will serve to “assess whether the country has consolidated its return to more open governance,” following Hakainde Hichilema’s victory in 2021, the authors note. They recognize progress in civil liberties but warn of unresolved economic and institutional challenges.
Gambia and South Sudan Vote in December
Gambia faces risks of reform stagnation, with the December presidential elections being decisive for the country’s democratic future, the African Center for Strategic Studies considers.
The article also mentions South Sudan, where the first elections since independence in 2011 are scheduled for December, highlighting institutional fragility, insecurity, and delays in implementing the peace agreement.
Overall, the Center concludes that the 2026 elections will test African states’ ability to respond to citizens’ aspirations amid economic pressures, armed conflicts, and geopolitical disputes, but also amid increasing repression of civic space and reduced media freedom.
Editorial Text • Photo D.R.
