Acute food insecurity in Mozambique could increase by 55% by March 2027, affecting approximately 1.84 million people. The deterioration is expected to be driven by armed conflict in the north of the country, the El Niño weather phenomenon, and the depletion of household food reserves. The estimate is contained in an analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), coordinated by the Technical Secretariat for Food and Nutritional Security (SETSAN), according to Lusa.
The projection, covering the period from October 2026 to March 2027, represents a significant worsening compared with the current 1.19 million people in acute food insecurity. Of the projected total, approximately 254,000 people could fall into Phase 4 — Emergency — up from the current 81,000, while 1.58 million are expected to remain in Phase 3 — Crisis.
“The number of people requiring urgent intervention is expected to rise to approximately 1.84 million, of whom 254,000 are in Phase 4 — Emergency,” the document states. The period under analysis corresponds to the lean season, which typically runs from October to March and is characterised by declining household food stocks ahead of the next harvest.
According to the analysis, this deterioration is expected to stem primarily from the depletion of food reserves, the impact of armed conflict in the north of the country, and the anticipated effects of El Niño on the southern and central regions. The report warns that “a deterioration in acute food insecurity is projected in the districts analysed” as these factors affect food production, access, and household livelihoods.
The analysis covered 46 districts affected by various shocks recorded between October 2025 and June 2026, including flooding, the effects of Cyclone Gezani, and the ongoing armed conflict in Cabo Delgado. The deterioration is expected to be most pronounced in conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula, as well as in the arid and semi-arid zones of central and southern Mozambique, where populations are most vulnerable to the effects of El Niño.
The report also estimates an 89% probability of El Niño occurring by January 2027. The phenomenon could bring below-average rainfall to the southern and central regions, above-normal temperatures, and heightened risks to agricultural production. These conditions could reduce food availability and impair household access to basic foodstuffs.
The situation could be further compounded by rising fuel prices, inflation, and transport costs, all of which erode household purchasing power and raise food prices. In May, maize prices in southern Mozambique were between 25% and 60% above the five-year average, while rice was trading at 20% to 40% above its historical average. At the same time, annual inflation rose from 4.4% in April to 7.5% in June 2026, reaching its highest level since May 2023.
The effects of the crisis are also expected to be reflected in nutrition outcomes. Over the next 12 months, an estimated 103,617 children aged between 6 and 59 months and 11,131 pregnant or breastfeeding women are projected to suffer from acute malnutrition and require treatment. The combination of food shortages, rising prices, and reduced access to services could worsen the nutritional status of the most vulnerable populations.
Between April and June 2026, more than 27,000 people were displaced by attacks from armed groups in Cabo Delgado, primarily in the districts of Ancuabe, Montepuez, and Chiúre. The forced displacement of these households has hampered access to markets, livelihoods, and humanitarian assistance, increasing their dependence on external support at a time when both climatic and food security risks are also expected to intensify.
Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/2026/09/11/desenvolvimento-2/el-nino-podera-aumentar-em-55-a-inseguranca-alimentar-aguda/
