In the run-up to 2026, we wanted to give voice to one of Mozambique’s key international partners: Norway. Ambassador Egil Thorsås addresses economic priorities, the energy sector, sovereign funds and employment, reflecting on the challenges and opportunities of the year ahead.
In the context of preparations for 2026, Norway remains a strategic partner for Mozambique, particularly in the areas of energy, sovereign funds and governance. With a cautious yet pragmatic outlook, Ambassador Egil Thorsås shares an analysis of the factors that could underpin job creation, economic recovery and diversification. His approach reflects Norway’s experience in managing natural resources and promoting transparency, underscoring the importance of supporting initiatives led by the Mozambican government itself.
Which factors do you consider most decisive for economic recovery and financial stability in 2026?
It is always difficult to identify a single decisive factor, because economic recovery depends on several elements that need to move forward together. But looking at Mozambique, I would say that macroeconomic stability will continue to be fundamental, particularly fiscal discipline, careful debt management and the predictability of economic policies. Another important element is the continuity of cooperation with international financial institutions, which has helped to strengthen investor confidence.
At the same time, the global environment will continue to influence the country, whether through international commodity prices or the availability of external financing. We must also not forget the role of the private sector: the greater the stability, the easier it will be to attract investment and create jobs. Therefore, the combination of prudent domestic management and a relatively favorable external environment will, in my view, be what most contributes to a more stable 2026.
“We consider it very wise that Mozambique is creating the Sovereign Fund now; when the large revenue flows arrive, it is already too late and becomes very difficult to manage divergent interests.”
One of the pillars of development and an area of Norwegian support in Mozambique is energy. What should be the country’s priorities in this area in 2026?
The most important thing is that priorities are defined by the Government of Mozambique itself. Norway only supports when there is a clear government decision on the direction it wants to take. But observing the sector, I can say that there are some elements that seem essential for 2026: first, the expansion and modernization of the transmission network remains critical, because without a stable network with sufficient capacity, both existing production and new investments are constrained. Second, strengthening the institutional capacity of the sector, including Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) and the regulatory entities, is absolutely essential to ensure sustainable and predictable long-term energy management. Another priority is accelerating the use of renewable energy, especially solar, which is already underway but still has significant room to grow. And, naturally, the process related to the Sovereign Fund linked to natural resources. This is a process that should move forward because how Mozambique manages gas revenues will have a direct impact on the future of the energy sector.
On our side, we do not foresee drastic changes: we will continue to support these areas where cooperation already exists, particularly institutional capacity, good sector governance and the development of essential infrastructure. The focus is on continuing to build on what has already been started.
Norway is the world’s leading example in managing a sovereign fund. What experience have you been sharing to guide Mozambique toward similar results?
We can share what we did right, but also the mistakes we made that other countries can avoid. Mozambique’s Sovereign Fund will not have the same structure or model as Norway’s, because Mozambique must find its own path. But we consider it very wise that Mozambique is creating the Fund now, because when the large revenue flows begin to arrive, it is already too late and becomes very difficult to manage divergent interests within the Government, especially when there are significant social needs.
A sovereign fund exists precisely so that most of the money is not spent immediately: part is saved for the future and another part is used transparently, in accordance with government decisions. In Norway, it took about 20 years from the start of oil production to the establishment of the Fund, and another five years until the first deposit, in 1996. Our experience tells us that it would have been better to create it even earlier. Our advice to Mozambique, and to any country, is to do this work as early as possible, because the more money comes in, the harder it becomes to manage the pressure. Transparency is the most important thing. Part of the revenue must be saved, another part invested, because the country’s needs are great. Regarding the Sovereign Fund, we have been cooperating for several years with the Bank of Mozambique and the Ministry of Finance.
Considering the development of the oil and gas industry, what direct impact can be expected on employment and the local economy in Mozambique in 2026?
Norway’s experience illustrates this well: in the early years of our oil industry, many platform workers were foreigners from the United States, the Netherlands or Canada, who brought accumulated experience. It is reasonable to assume that something similar may occur in Mozambique in 2026. Thus, although revenue flows may transform the country’s macroeconomic position, the direct impact on local employment will likely remain limited. This is without even considering the additional factor of insecurity in the region, which may also constrain the involvement of local labor.
“For 2026, the recommendation remains: continue diversification prudently, ensuring that natural resource revenue flows do not undermine other sectors.”
Do Norway and other partners have any assessment of Mozambique’s employment priorities? How have you supported the country in this area?
Unfortunately, we do not have many Norwegian companies present in Mozambique. I say unfortunately because, as ambassador, I would like to see a Norwegian private sector with more investments here, but the Norwegian government cannot instruct private companies—it can only encourage them.
In terms of job creation, we are involved in several projects, some linked to agriculture. Recently, I was in Nampula visiting a cashew and peanut production project involving a Norwegian company that purchases Mozambican cashews.
We also have investments through Norfund—a fund financed by the Government of Norway but which invests exclusively in private companies—and which operates like any private investor: it buys stakes, supports companies to grow and then sells, continuously reinvesting, and the money can never be withdrawn from the fund.
Norfund currently has around 21 investments in Mozambique. The Norwegian government wants this fund to grow to invest even more, not only in Mozambique but globally.
How do you foresee the evolution of the governance climate in Mozambique throughout 2026, considering the current political and institutional context?
Norway values Mozambique’s institutional stability and, looking ahead to 2026, expects the country to continue deepening the progress already visible in predictability and transparency of public management. Naturally, challenges will persist, as in many countries, especially in a context of fiscal constraints and high social expectations. But the essential point, from our perspective, is that channels of dialogue with the authorities remain open, because these mechanisms have enabled constructive cooperation in areas that are priorities for Mozambique. We will continue to prioritize government-led processes and share experiences whenever requested, accompanying advances that, although gradual, we hope will consolidate throughout 2026.
From your perspective, what are the main challenges and priorities for Mozambique in 2026 regarding fiscal revenue collection capacity and economic diversification, especially in the context of natural resources and rising revenues?
Regarding the Tax Authority, we do not foresee any specific support for 2026 at this time. There may have been support in the past, but currently the focus of cooperation remains with the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Mozambique. As for economic diversification, we also do not have concrete projects planned for next year, but there are general lessons that can be considered. Any country with large natural resource revenues (oil, gas and mining) needs to diversify its economy to avoid the so-called “Dutch disease,” when a natural resource boom weakens other sectors. In Norway, we learned from the experience of the Netherlands and tried to avoid falling into this trap. We were not 100% successful—perhaps 70% or 80%—but experience shows that a sovereign fund helps smooth revenues over time and reduces economic vulnerability. Therefore, for 2026, the recommendation remains: continue diversification prudently, ensuring that natural resource revenue flows do not compromise other sectors of the economy.
Several international partners are reducing development aid packages to Mozambique. How will this phenomenon manifest itself in the country’s performance in 2026?
It is difficult to predict the impact precisely, because it depends heavily on domestic political decisions and the ability to mobilize domestic resources. What I can say is that the global trend of reduced aid is not specifically related to Mozambique, but to external factors: budgetary pressures in donor countries, conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and the situation in Gaza, and domestic priorities in several governments. For Mozambique, this means there may be less room to finance certain programs, especially those that rely heavily on external support. But I also believe the country has gradually strengthened its macroeconomic management mechanisms, which helps it cope better with these fluctuations. On our side, we will remain committed to maintaining stable cooperation within existing possibilities.
What message would you like to leave for development partners in the context of a sustainable, inclusive and resilient economy?
The message is simple: there needs to be a long-term spending plan, and the country must ensure it does not become dependent solely on the extractive industry. And if you allow me to add something personal: having been in Mozambique for a short time, I feel sad when I go to shops and see that much of what I buy comes from South Africa. I have nothing against South Africa, but it is sad to see so little local production when Mozambique has similar land, climate and water, especially in border areas.
What is missing are investments, knowledge and infrastructure, such as irrigation, but the potential exists. This is something I frequently mention in coordination meetings. Personally, I regret seeing so little of this capacity being harnessed.
Text: Celso Chambisso & Cleusia Chirindza • Photography: D.R.
