Authorities warned on Friday (12) of “major flooding” in Mozambique and the inundation of at least four million hectares of farmland during the upcoming rainy season, which begins in October.
“In the second phase [of the rainy season], which is January, February and March, we expect heavy rains and large-scale flooding, what we classify as a high regime, especially in the Incomati, Maputo and Limpopo basins,” said Agostinho Vilanculos, national director of Water Resources Management, on the sidelines of the National Climate Outlook Forum for the 2025–26 rainy season in Maputo.
According to Vilanculos, dams in neighboring countries — including South Africa and Eswatini — are at 99% of storage capacity, leaving little room to absorb excess rainfall. This situation will force water releases and lead to downstream flooding in Mozambique.
“If the dams are full, then they cannot hold more, so any rain that falls in neighboring countries turns into runoff and flows into our country,” Vilanculos warned, citing Matola, Maputo, Beira and Quelimane as “high-risk municipalities” for flooding.
The water resources chief added that agriculture will also be heavily affected, with at least four million hectares at risk. “We estimate that around four million hectares of potentially arable land are exposed, including about 7,000 hectares within Maputo city,” he said.
At the same event, climatologist Isaías Raiva from the National Institute of Meteorology said rains are expected nationwide between January and March 2026, with the strongest impact in the south, alongside “some dry spells.”
Américo José, from the National Institute of Health, warned of increased malaria and diarrhea outbreaks in Nampula (north) and Zambézia and Tete (center) during the rainy season, stressing that climate change represents a “direct and indirect threat to the health sector.”
Meanwhile, Agriculture Director Hiten Jantilal announced preventive measures ahead of the rains, including guidance for farmers on “when to begin planting and how to minimize risks of pests and diseases.”
On September 3, President Daniel Chapo urged residents of Sofala province (center) to abandon flood-prone zones during the rainy season while handing over 840 homes built by the Tzu Chi Foundation for victims of Cyclone Idai. “We must leave high-risk areas — those that can flood at any time once the rains come. Whenever there is flooding here in Búzi, it is very difficult to evacuate people,” Chapo said.
Mozambique is considered one of the countries most severely affected by climate change, facing recurring floods and tropical cyclones during the October-to-April rainy season. Between December and March alone, in the last cyclone season, the country was hit by three cyclones, including Chido, the first and most severe, in late 2024.
The number of cyclones striking Mozambique “has increased over the last decade,” along with stronger winds, according to the State of the Climate in Mozambique 2024 report by the National Institute of Meteorology, published in March.
Extreme weather events caused at least 1,016 deaths in Mozambique between 2019 and 2023, affecting around 4.9 million people, according to the National Statistics Institute.
Source: Lusa
