Mozambique's Northern Regional Water Administration (ARA-Norte) has issued a flood risk warning for the lower Nante basin in Zambézia province, particularly in the Maganja da Costa district, as well as several locations in Angoche, Nampula province, with the period of greatest concern identified as January to March 2027.
The warning coincides with the official start of the rainy season on 1 October, during which Mozambique is expected to experience sharply contrasting conditions across its regions. While the south is forecast to face below-average rainfall, the north is expected to receive heavy precipitation.
"In the October, November and December period we are talking about 50 to 80 millimetres, but in the first quarter of 2027 we are factoring in cyclones, so we expect precipitation of 120 to 200 millimetres per day — and that level of rainfall has historically caused extremely severe impacts," said Carlitos Omar, director-general of ARA-Norte.
The January-to-March window represents the highest-risk period, driven by the likelihood of cyclone activity and daily rainfall of between 120 and 200 millimetres. Concern is heightened by the fact that all six dams under ARA-Norte's jurisdiction are currently holding water levels in excess of 90% of capacity.
"That is a very large volume of water. We are going to begin conducting controlled releases at some of the dams now in order to prepare for the rainy season, which is already upon us," Omar told journalists.
ARA-Norte estimates that flooding could affect more than 1.6 million people in the zones identified as highest risk, and has indicated that the early evacuation of communities may be required to prevent greater harm.
"We are working with the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction to mount an intensive response, and if necessary we will engage local authorities. People must leave. They should not wait to see what happens," Omar warned, singling out the Baixo Nante area in Maganja da Costa, Aube in Nampula, and Megaruma in Cabo Delgado as areas of particular concern.
To bolster preparedness for the 2026/27 rainy season, the Ministry of Public Works, Housing and Water Resources is mobilising funding for the construction of water retention infrastructure, including weirs and dams.
In Niassa province, construction is under way on the Locómuè dam in Lichinga, aimed at expanding the region's water storage capacity. In parallel, ARA-Norte is convening a two-day technical meeting bringing together engineers and dam management companies to coordinate preparedness measures ahead of the season.
Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/2026/09/30/desenvolvimento-2/ara-norte-alerta-para-aumento-de-risco-de-inundacoes-com-barragens-acima-dos-90/
