Government forecasts indicate that industrial production will grow by 5.4% in 2026, reaching MZN 153.9 billion ($2.3 billion), driven primarily by the metallurgical sector.
According to the Government’s forecast report, the manufacturing industry “is expected to grow 5.4% between 2025 and 2026, with particularly strong momentum in non-metallic minerals at 7.0%, basic metallurgy at 6.8%, beverages at 6.2%, furniture and mattresses at 5.5%, and the food industry at 5%, suggesting a trajectory of industrial recovery and expansion focused on sectors with high economic weight and consolidated productive base.”
According to supporting documents for the 2026 Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE), currently under review in the Assembly of the Republic, this growth compares to an estimated MZN 146 billion expected from the manufacturing industry this year and MZN 144 billion realized in 2024.
“In contrast, sectors such as clothing, textiles, tobacco, footwear, and paper show growth below 5%, given their limited integration into broader value chains. Due to their potential, these sectors could benefit from measures aimed at revitalization, technological modernization, and competitiveness enhancement, in order to increase their contribution to industrial diversification and employment,” the document adds.
Overall industrial production growth forecasts are supported by a 6.8% increase in the basic metallurgy sector, which accounts for 28% of the total, with projections of MZN 44 billion in 2026, compared to MZN 41 billion this year and MZN 40 billion in 2024. However, this sector largely depends on the continued operation of Mozal Aluminium, the country’s largest industry, whose management by the Australian company South32 plans to shut it down from March next year amid a dispute with the government over energy supply conditions.
“Despite our efforts, negotiations have not progressed in a way that builds confidence that Mozal Aluminium will secure sufficient and affordable electricity beyond March 2026,” reads information sent to the markets by South32 on October 21, adding that “without the necessary energy supply,” the plant is expected to enter maintenance mode after that date.
The Australian company assures in the document that it continues to “actively collaborate” with the government, the Cahora Bassa Hydroelectric (HCB), and South African Eskom — which purchases electricity from HCB and sells it to Mozal — “to ensure sufficient and affordable energy” for the smelter, the largest in Africa, employing around 5,000 workers near Maputo. The same market briefing noted that Mozal’s saleable production increased by 3%, reaching 93,000 tons in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, “with the smelter operating close to its maximum technical capacity,” before the August decision “to interrupt the lining of the pot due to uncertainty over future electricity supply” after March next year.
Meanwhile, the production projection for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 240,000 tons, “based on the continuity of operations until March 2026, when the current electricity supply contract expires,” the document further states.
Mozal announced in August that it intends to cut investments and terminate contracted contractors, maintaining operations only until March, claiming conditions for continuation are not met. A few days later, the Confederation of Economic Associations (CTA) of Mozambique revealed that Mozal had abruptly terminated contracts with about 20 companies, leaving at least 1,000 workers unemployed.
Source: Diário Económico
